The share of hits among 43 forecasts scored at maturity. It beats the naive trend-persistence baseline by 5%p. Every missed call is published below too.
Cumulative hit rate across 43 scored forecasts.
How we score. For each topic we track how often it is mentioned across AI papers, news, and code (its share). If that share rises 20% or more above the baseline we call it a rise, falls 20% or more a fall, and anything in between holds. We score it automatically against real data at maturity.
No live forecasts yet. New ones are posted daily after the 00:00 KST collection.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Learning action policies from reward signals
The current share (1.38%) is well below the 28-day average (1.95%), with a 23.8% weekly drop indicating clear downward momentum despite 11 papers in 7 days.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
The share (1.13%) is close to the 28-day average (1.08%), and minimal activity (2 papers, 0 news in 7 days) lacks evidence for a rise.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
A model that learns an environment's dynamics
The share (1.13%) is near the 28-day average (1.05%), and low activity (2 papers, 0 news in 7 days) suggests the surge may not sustain.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Meaning represented as a vector
The current share (1.51%) exceeds the 28-day average (1.27%), with a 41.4% weekly surge and 10 papers in 7 days indicating strong upward momentum.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
The share has slightly increased to 1.53% from the previous 1.43% and the long-term average of 1.4%, with momentum marked as 'stable'. News activity (3 items) suggests a possibility of maintaining stability at the current level.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Deriving answers through multiple steps
The share has decreased to 2.59% from the previous 3.17% and the long-term average of 3.74%, with momentum marked as 'decreasing'. The absence of news and repository activity suggests the downward trend may continue.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
While the share has decreased to 1.53% from the previous 2.25% and the long-term average of 2.36%, steady repository activity (7 repos) suggests stabilization at the current level rather than a sharp further decline.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Weighting the important parts of the input
The share has decreased to 1.29% from the previous 2.25% and the long-term average of 2.0%, with momentum in a 'decreasing' state. The lack of news and repository activity suggests insufficient momentum for a rebound.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Measuring and evaluating model performance
The current share (3.41%) has fallen significantly below both the previous share (6.35%) and the long-term average (5.03%), with momentum marked as 'decreasing', indicating a high probability of the downward trend continuing.
mention share holds within ±20% over 14d
An evaluation set for measuring and comparing
The share (8.76%) showed a slight 1.5% increase from the previous (8.63%), indicating stability, with 78 papers in 7 days maintaining high activity. However, it remains below the long-term average (9.88%), limiting upside potential.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Reducing model risks and misuse (AI safety)
The current share (0.94%) is below the 28-day average (1.28%) and fell 42.9% week-over-week, but related papers (papers_7d: 4) and news (news_7d: 4) during ICML 2026 may soften the decline.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Entities and relations represented as a graph
The current share (1.76%) is near the 28-day average (1.96%) but fell 42.9% week-over-week, with no paper or news activity (papers_7d: 0, news_7d: 0), suggesting the downward momentum is likely to continue.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Adapting a pretrained model to a specific task
The current share (0.94%) is well below the 28-day average (1.94%) and fell 66.2% week-over-week, but the upcoming ICML 2026 conference may temporarily halt the decline with related paper presentations (papers_7d: 8).
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
The current share (5.64%) exceeds both the previous (4.79%) and long-term average (5.03%) with increasing momentum, supported by active news (7) and repository activity (31 repos).
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Handling text, image, and audio together
The share has fallen below both the previous (2.14%) and long-term average (2.3%), with no news and limited repository activity (4 repos), suggesting the decreasing momentum may persist.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Aligning models with human intent and values
The current share (1.2%) is significantly below both the previous (2.55%) and long-term average (2.67%) with a sharp decline momentum, and the absence of news and repository activity suggests the short-term downward trend is likely to continue.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
The current share of 2.04% is below the 28-day average of 2.76% with 'decreasing' momentum, but activity (15 papers) exists and there is a possibility of temporary rebound due to the ICML 2026 effect, so a stable trend is more likely than a sharp further decline.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Attention-based neural network architecture
The current share of 1.32% is below the 28-day average of 2.19% with 'sharp decline' momentum, but activity (11 papers) has not completely vanished, so there is a possibility of mean reversion with temporary interest increase during the ICML 2026 conference week.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Large language models
The current share of 15.38% is close to the 28-day average of 14.83% with 'stable' momentum, and high activity counts (29 papers, 18 news, 81 repos) support stable interest, but the ICML effect may already be priced in, so no sharp change is expected.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
AI that uses tools to act on its own
The current share of 24.88% significantly exceeds the 28-day average of 19.25%, but the 'increasing' momentum and high activity counts (22 papers, 27 news, 158 repos) are expected to drive further growth, amplified by the ICML 2026 conference effect.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Learning action policies from reward signals
The current share (1.9%) increased 27.2% from the previous period (1.49%) but remains significantly below the 28-day average (2.45%). While 16 papers were active in 7 days, there is no news (0) and minimal code repository (1) activity. Despite the approaching ICML 2026, the share's failure to recover past averages suggests mean reversion pressure, making stability at current levels likely.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Retrieval-augmented generation
The current share (1.23%) increased 37.2% from the previous period (0.89%), but 7-day activity is minimal with only 2 papers and 1 news article. The share is similar to the 28-day average (1.15%), suggesting mean reversion after a short-term spike. Given the previous miss where 'rise' was predicted but 'fall' occurred, a conservative stance is taken.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Transferring a big model's knowledge to a small one
The current share (1.34%) surged 124.6% from the previous period (0.6%), with 12 papers published in the last 7 days, indicating concentrated academic interest. With ICML 2026 (7/6-7/11) approaching, the practical topic of 'model compression' is likely to maintain interest alongside amplified domestic news coverage on ML in general.
mention share +20%↑ within 14d
Models that understand images and text together
The current share (1.41%) is slightly below the 28-day average (1.49%), and the increasing momentum along with a high number of papers (13) suggests sustained interest.
mention share holds within ±20% over 14d
The current share (1.85%) is similar to the 28-day average (1.93%), so it is not overextended. The surge momentum may be a temporary spike due to the conference (ICML) effect, with a possibility of mean reversion.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Weighting the important parts of the input
The current share (1.58%) is below both the previous week's (2.26%) and the 28-day average (2.25%), showing a clear downward momentum of -30.2% week-over-week. Although a conference event is scheduled, there is a lack of specific quantitative catalysts to reverse the current downward trend.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Deriving answers through multiple steps
The current share (2.59%) is below both the previous week's (3.83%) and the 28-day average (4.53%), with a strong downward momentum of -32.4% week-over-week. While a conference event is imminent within 7 days, there is no clear quantitative signal for an immediate reversal of this downward trend.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Although the share dropped 37.5%, 16 papers in 7 days show active research. The gap between the current (2.04%) and long-term average (2.64%) is small, suggesting stabilization rather than further sharp decline.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Speech recognition and synthesis
Despite a 41.4% drop from the previous share, 8 papers and 8 repository activities in 7 days indicate sustained technical interest. After a sharp decline, mean reversion suggests a stable trend.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
The current share (0.92%) surged from the previous (0.48%), with 8 papers in 7 days showing strong momentum. The upcoming ICML 2026 conference may further concentrate related research.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Control and perception for robots
The current share (1.06%) is well above the 28-day average (0.71%) with a 119.7% weekly surge, supported by 7 papers in 7 days indicating active research.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Adapting a pretrained model to a specific task
The current share (2.86%) is above the 28-day average (2.47%), and active research with 26 papers in 7 days suggests the upward momentum may continue.
mention share 20%↓ within 7d
Entities and relations represented as a graph
The current share (3.18%) significantly exceeds the 28-day average (1.95%), indicating an overextended state. The surge momentum is primarily driven by repository activity (29 repos), making mean reversion likely.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
The current share (5.04%) slightly decreased from the previous (5.33%) by -5.4%, but 7 news articles and 27 repositories in 7 days show an active ecosystem. Similar to the long-term average (4.92%), it is likely to maintain the current level.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Handling text, image, and audio together
The current share (2.25%) increased 48.0% from the previous (1.52%), with 21 papers in 7 days showing active research. As ICML 2026 approaches, multimodal research presentations may concentrate.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
The current share (1.82%) surged 59.8% from the previous (1.14%), with 17 papers in 7 days showing sustained interest. However, it is approaching the long-term average (1.92%), which may limit further upside.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Aligning models with human intent and values
The current share (2.68%) surged from the previous (1.62%), and 24 papers in 7 days indicate active research. With ICML 2026 approaching, related discussions are likely to amplify further.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Large language models
The current share (14.32%) is similar to the 28-day average (14.67%), and despite a 9.5% weekly increase, 'stable' momentum suggests it may stabilize at the current level. Confidence is lowered due to a previous missed forecast.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
AI that uses tools to act on its own
While the current share (18.23%) slightly exceeds the 28-day average (17.63%), a minor weekly decline of -2.8% and 'stable' momentum suggest it will likely maintain its current level in the short term.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Attention-based neural network architecture
The current share (2.99%) is above the 28-day average (2.44%), with a 97.1% weekly surge and strong 'surge' momentum, making a continued upward trend highly likely.
mention share +20%↑ within 7d
Reducing model risks and misuse (AI safety)
The current share (1.65%) slightly exceeds the 28-day average (1.55%), with a 117.5% weekly surge and 'surge' momentum indicating a short-term upward trend. However, confidence is tempered due to a previous missed forecast.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
The current share (1.95%) is below the 28-day average (2.66%) with stable momentum, and with news (3) and repo (7) activity, it may maintain its current level in the short term.
mention share holds within ±20% over 7d
Learning action policies from reward signals
The current share (1.63%) is significantly below the 28-day average (2.74%), but with strong decreasing momentum and no news/repo activity, the decline may halt and show stability in the short term.